The proportion of adult deaths is rising due to declining child mortality and lower fertility rates, shifting the burden of premature deaths to ages 15-59, which are mostly preventable. Simultaneously, deaths among those over 60 are increasing, as this age group is projected to constitute a quarter of the global population by 2100. Understanding adult mortality is crucial for effective public health investment. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems are the most reliable for measuring adult mortality, though many countries lack complete systems. Alternative methods like surveys and censuses are used, but they have limitations, including infrequency and potential inaccuracies. This Stats Brief explores the different ways of estimating adult mortality and how this can be improved.

This Brief is part of ESCAP’s work on civil registration and vital statistics funded under the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative (D4H) Project.

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This Stats Brief was prepared by Ashira Menashe Oren, Consultant, ESCAP Statistics Division, under the supervision of Petra Nahmias, Chief of Population and Social Statistics Section, ESCAP Statistics Division, with valuable inputs from Tanja Sejersen, Statistician, ESCAP Statistics Division, Afsaneh Yazdani, Statistician, ESCAP Statistics Division and Haoyi Chen, Statistician, United Nations Statistics Division. The brief is issued without formal editing.