| Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2007 |
| |
| 20 - International trade |
World trade has continued to grow more rapidly than world output. On an average annual basis, world merchandise exports grew by 10 per cent during the period 2000 to 2005. In 2006, world merchandise exports grew further, by almost 15 per cent. The growth in world trade is sustained largely by the emerging economies in Asia, in particular China, and, to some extent, India.
Merchandise exports in the Asian and Pacific region grew, on average, by 12 per cent annually during the period 2000 to 2005 and by 17.5 per cent in 2006 (table 20.3). Africa posted a higher growth rate for the period 2000 to 2005, but Asia and the Pacific outpaced it in 2006. This was not the case with Latin America and the Caribbean, which recorded an impressive 20 per cent growth in merchandise exports in 2006, after maintaining a relatively lacklustre average of 9.4 per cent during 2000 to 2005.
Figure 20.1 Index of merchandise exports in selected Asian and Pacific countries/areas and country/area groupings, 2000-2006
China and Japan are the leading exporters in Asia and the Pacific. China posted a high average annual growth rate in merchandise exports of 25 per cent during the period 2000 to 2005 and 27.2 per cent in 2006, which gained it a place among the largest exporters in the world. The total merchandise exports of China in 2006 approached US$ 970 billion, seven times higher than India. Japan took second place among Asian and Pacific countries that year, with US$ 644 billion. During the period 2000 to 2005 and in 2006, the merchandise exports of India grew at 18.6 and 21.5 per cent, respectively.
Some Central Asian countries also registered high growth rates in merchandise exports. While high growth in countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan is based on high oil and gas prices, the high growth rates in Armenia and Georgia of over 26 and 22 per cent, respectively, during the period 2000 to 2005 are more surprising. These may be due to high commodity prices and, hence, more favourable terms of trade, even though these growth rates were sharply lower in 2006. Tajikistan, in contrast, boasted an unprecedented merchandise export growth rate of almost 54 per cent in 2006, after a lacklustre average annual growth rate of 3 per cent during the period 2000 to 2005.
Asia and the Pacific ranked second - behind Africa - with respect to the average annual growth rate of merchandise imports during the period 2000 to 2005, with 13 per cent. Among ESCAP subregions, Central Asia posted the highest average import growth rate, 21 per cent, during the same period, with Kyrgyzstan (55 per cent) leading the way. In South-East Asia, the growth rate of merchandise imports contracted sharply for Indonesia and Thailand in 2006. In contrast, imports grew markedly in 2006 for the Lao People's Democratic Republic, the Philippines and Singapore.
Figure 20.2 Index of merchandise imports in selected Asian and Pacific countries/areas and country/area groupings, 2000-2006
China and Japan are among the leading importers in the Asian and Pacific region. The merchandise imports of China, for example, amounted to almost US$ 792 billion in 2006. Japan followed with US$ 578 billion.
For China, the ratio of exports to GDP
amounted to 42 per cent in 2005, but that of
Hong Kong, China — traditionally the most open
economy in the region — was whopping a 204 per
cent, and that of Singapore even higher at 243 per
cent. These towering figures are due to the large
values of re-exports for these economies. Among the
least developed countries, the ratio of exports to
GDP has increased significantly in Cambodia, and
to some extent also in Bangladesh.
Figure 20.3 Exports relative to GDP in selected Asian and Pacific countries, 2000 and 2005
China recorded a positive current account balance of over 9 per cent of GDP in 2006, which contributed to its massive foreign reserves, while India recorded a deficit of 2.2 per cent. Timor-Leste, Brunei Darussalam and Singapore had the highest current account surpluses at 116.3, 58.7 and 27.5 per cent of GDP, respectively, in 2006. Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, had the highest current account deficit in 2006, which may be a reflection of the country's implementation of trade reforms and the relaxation of import restrictions (table 20.3).
Figure 20.4 Current account balance in selected Asian and Pacific countries/area, 2000 and 2006
The share of primary products (agriculture, mining and other natural resources, including oil, gas and coal) has steadily declined in most countries of Asia and the Pacific. These products only figure prominently in the export structure of energy-rich countries. According to UNCTAD data, among the non-energy rich countries, primary products continue to account for over 50 per cent of exports in such countries as Maldives and Tajikistan and various Pacific islands (table 20.4). In other countries, manufacturing products lead exports, though services are becoming increasingly important. World manufacturing exports grew at an annual average of 11 per cent during the period 2000 to 2005 and they made up 83 per cent of total world merchandise exports in 2005.
Intraregional trade
According to UNCTAD (2007), intraregional trade has grown steadily and more rapidly than extraregional trade. The reasons for this are harmonization of standards, policy coordination, conclusion of regional and bilateral trade agreements and business-driven regional production networks and supply chains. Intraregional merchandise trade (among ESCAP member countries) has increased steadily from 47 per cent in 2000 to 51 per cent in 2005. A number of countries have been able to reduce their dependence on traditional export markets, such as the United States, Japan and the European Union. Instead, many countries are looking for export opportunities in the emerging economic giants of China and India. The share of merchandise exports from ASEAN member countries to the United States in total ASEAN country exports, for instance, decreased by 20 per cent between 2000 and 2005, but the share of exports to China increased by 124 per cent during the same period.
There are currently 133 regional and bilateral trade agreements involving an ESCAP member State. While such agreements, in principle, contribute to the liberalization of trade, their net impact on trade creation is not always positive and many remain unratified and unimplemented. There are notable exceptions, such as the regional trade agreement (RTA) of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Intra-AFTA trade is, however, only about a quarter of the subregion's total trade. The China-ASEAN free trade agreement, expected to be fully implemented in 2010, will further boost intraregional trade in East Asia. Already, China is emerging as the locomotive for the region. ASEAN is also negotiating FTAs with India, Japan and the Republic of Korea.
Another emerging bloc is the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), which is the only RTA combining the leading economies of China, India and the Republic of Korea together with Sri Lanka and least developed countries such as Bangladesh and the Lao People's Democratic Republic. A fourth round of tariff negotiations, launched in late October 2007 by ministers of the APTA member countries, will further boost intra-APTA trade, which is currently small at just over 5 per cent. With growing awareness of the Third Round results, however, this percentage is likely to rise. |
The region will continue to face challenges and opportunities in trade. They are increasingly likely to stem from the region itself, especially with the stalled multilateral trade negotiations under the Doha Round. Rapidly expanding regional and subregional production networks and supply chains offer great opportunities for further trade integration and cooperation. China 's trade growth, for example, is likely to continue and will force many Asian countries, in particular those in South-East Asia, to speed up economic reforms towards more subregional integration and industrial restructuring. On the other hand, as noted above, trade between China and ASEAN countries is already expanding rapidly. Sustained investment in human resources, infrastructure and export competitiveness will help Asian countries manage globalization to their advantage and maintain growth momentum for years to come. Less and least developed countries, including those that are landlocked and energy-poor, should deepen their integration into the Asian and Pacific region to benefit from its dynamism and growth. The proliferation of regional and bilateral trade agreements, however, also raises concerns about so-called "noodle bowl" risks growing out of control. There is a need, therefore, for all these agreements to be consolidated and integrated in some form in order to arrive at an effective and efficient Asian integration process.
|
Imports of goods and services (% of GDP): The value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude labour and property income (formerly called factor services) as well as transfer payments. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data have been imputed. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from World Bank, World Development Indicators (online database, accessed in September 2007).
Exports of goods and services (% of GDP): The value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude labour and property income (formerly called factor services) as well as transfer payments. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data have been imputed. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from World Bank, World Development Indicators (online database, accessed in September 2007).
Imports of merchandise (million US dollars): All goods which add to the material resources of a country as a result of their movement into or out of the country. Thus, ordinary commercial transactions, government trade (including foreign aid, war reparations and trade in military goods), postal trade and all kind of silver (except silver coins after their issue), are included in the statistics. Since their movement affects monetary rather than material resources, monetary gold, and currency and titles of ownership after their issue into circulation, are excluded. Aggregates: Sum of individual country values. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
Exports of merchandise (million US dollars): All goods which subtract from the material resources of a country as a result of their movement into or out of the country. Thus, ordinary commercial transactions, government trade (including foreign aid, war reparations and trade in military goods), postal trade and all kind of silver (except silver coins after their issue), are included in the statistics. Since their movement affects monetary rather than material resources, monetary gold, and currency and titles of ownership after their issue into circulation, are excluded. Aggregates: Sum of individual country values. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
Average annual growth rate of imports of merchandise (percentage): Average annual rate of change in imports of merchandise. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data have been imputed. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
Average annual growth rate of exports of merchandise (percentage): Average annual rate of change in exports of merchandise. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data have been imputed. Source: Calculated by ESCAP using data from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
Current account balance (% of GDP): The net difference between credit and debit flows from goods, services and income. It also includes current transfers crossing national borders, but not transactions in financial assets and liabilities which are recorded in the capital account. Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, (CD-ROM June 2007).
Exports concentration index: The degree of export market concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index. A high value indicates that the country depends on few export markets. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using exports of goods and services as weight. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
Primary products exports share (% of products exports): The dependence of the country's exports of primary commodities, expressed as a share of total exports. Aggregates: Averages are calculated using exports of goods and services as weight. Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Handbook of Statistics, (online database, accessed on September 2007).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tables  |
|
Figures  |
 |
Figure 20.1 Index of merchandise exports in selected Asian and Pacific countries/areas and country/area groupings, 2000-2006 |
|
|
Figure 20.2 Index of merchandise imports in selected Asian and Pacific countries/areas and country/area groupings, 2000-2006 |
|
|
Figure 20.3 Exports relative to GDP in selected Asian and Pacific countries, 2000 and 2005 |
|
|
Figure 20.4 Current account balance in selected Asian and Pacific countries/area, 2000 and 2006 |
|
|
| Definitions |
|
)
)
)
)