The 2000 round of population
and housing censuses is significant in at
least two respects. These enumerations provide
an inventory of the population at the beginning
of the next millennium, a historic moment
in the evolution of mankind and indeed a most
opportune time for stock-taking of people
in all the countries. This puts a higher emphasis
on the need for an accurate count of the population
and their characteristics. The censuses are
also significant in the sense that they are
taking place at a time of unprecedented growth
in information technology that provides cost-effective
and efficient solutions to many of the census
activities.
This document attempts
to bring out some of the important issues
related to census taking in the region and
to provide a basis for the Working Group's
comments and discussions regarding those issues.
For purposes of discussion, we refer to the
2000 round of population and housing censuses
as those conducted or planned during the period
1995-2004.
Annex 1 shows the countries
and areas in the ESCAP region and the year
in which they are undertaking their censuses
for the 2000 round. Of the 56 countries and
territories in this region, 27 carried out
a census during the period 1995-1999 of which
10 (Hong Kong, China; Japan; Republic of Korea;
Philippines; Maldives; Australia; Kiribati;
Northern Mariana Islands; Palau and New Zealand)
conducted the population count as part of
their quinquennial census programme. About
60 per cent (33) of the countries in the ESCAP
region have plans to conduct a census at the
turn of the new millennium, that is, in 2000
or 2001; two others (Turkmenistan and the
Federated States of Micronesia) are planning
to do so in the year 2004.
It might be noted that
for the North and Central Asia subregion,
which comprises mainly countries of the former
Soviet Union, the 2000 round of population
censuses are the first that they are conducting
as separate and independent states. For these
countries, the years following independence
have been a period of political, social and
economic transformations and these have brought
about additional challenges to statistical
offices as regards census taking. Census methodologies
have to conform to data needs under a market
economy, as opposed to those required under
a centrally planned economy. At the same time,
there is mounting pressure on these countries
to adhere to international standards of statistical
practice in order to make their data comparable
with the rest of the world.
International standards
of census taking are set forth in the United
Nations publication, Principles and Recommendations
for Population and Housing Censuses.1/
First published in the seventies, it has undergone
a series of revisions, the latest of which
were the result of a review by an expert group
meeting convened by the United Nations Statistics
Division in 1996. The revisions were adopted
by the Statistical Commission in 1997 and
the English version of the revised document
has been circulated for use during the 2000
round of population censuses.
Unfortunately, the translation
and publication of the revised guidelines
into the other official languages of the United
Nations could not be completed in time for
the census preparations in the countries where
they were most needed. For example, countries
like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan
which undertook their population and housing
censuses in early 1999 could not benefit from
the use of the revised guidelines since the
Russian version was not available early enough.
Unlike the regional
commissions for Europe and Africa, ESCAP was
unable to organize working group meetings
to discuss issues and make recommendations
for the 2000 round of population censuses
which are particularly relevant to this region.
The main reason for this was the secretariat's
inability to mobilize the necessary extrabudgetary
funds. Nonetheless, despite the fact that
there was no regional meeting specifically
in the 2000 round of population census in
Asia and the Pacific, experts in the region
had their inputs reflected in the revision
of the Principles and Recommendations
referred to above during the expert group
meeting organized by the United Nations Statistics
Division in September 1996.
It should be noted that
the Principles and Recommendations
have been revised taking into account the
following developments that significantly
bear upon the design of census programmes:
(a) changes in computer technology; (b) increased
capability of national census offices to disseminate
census data in a more flexible manner together
with the increased ability of users to utilize
data stored in electronic formats; (c) changes
in socio-economic situations in many countries;
and (d) increased emphasis on responding to
the needs of data users.
1/
United Nations publication, Sales No. E.98.XVII.8
II.
Implications of Global Summit Goals on Census
Undertaking
The requirements for
monitoring the goals of recent international
conferences have decidedly increased the demand
for data to be obtained through a population
and housing census. They have become crucial
concerns for census planners even as demands
for data to serve national purposes have increased.
Among other things, the global conferences
dictate that censuses should ensure appropriate
collection of information on the social and
economic status of women; accurate enumeration
of the number of internally displaced persons
and international refugees; identification
of household practices ( e.g., method of waste
disposal) that have impact on the environment;
estimation of the extent of poverty with the
use of proxy indicators, etc.
To improve gender statistics,
one of the primary concerns is to be able
to identify female-headed households and record
them as such. In a majority of the countries
in this region, when the question is asked
"Who is the head of this household?", tradition
still predisposes the identification of a
male member of the household as its head regardless
of the distribution of responsibilities and
authority between men and women within the
household. Alternative ways of asking questions
to identify the head of the household are
essential and need to be tested.
Another and perhaps
an even more important concern affecting the
collection of gender-sensitive statistics
is the tendency of most statistical inquiries
to fail to fully account for the economic
activities of women. A number of recommendations
have been made on the formulation of questions
on economic activity so as to elicit accurate
information on the nature and extent of women's
work.2/
These recommendations require additional questions
to be asked in an already crammed census questionnaire;
frequently they compete with other topical
items that statistical offices feel under
pressure to include. Nothwithstanding the
cost of including additional questions, the
benefits in terms of improved statistics on
women dictate that countries should endeavour
to use measures that accurately reflect the
value of women's work.
In Nepal, part of the
census publicity programme, which is being
organized in preparation for the 2001 census,
includes an awareness raising campaign on
the importance of the role of women in society.
It is designed to change general public perceptions
on the value of women's work and to ensure
that it is properly reported when a census
interviewer comes to collect the information.
For the economies in
transition, the approach to measuring economic
activity in general is undergoing significant
change. This is necessitated by the transition
to a free market economy wherein public sector
employment has been drastically pruned down.
The system of maintaining a register of unemployed
people no longer provides a reliable basis
of the extent of unemployment in these economies.
Many unemployed persons no longer register
themselves officially, believing that the
government can no longer assure them of jobs.
The 2000 round of censuses
provides the opportunity for establishing
benchmark levels of employment and unemployment
among the economically active population.
The previous decennial census did include
a question on economic activity. The same
type of question, however, cannot capture
the dynamics of the labour market that now
characterizes these economies. There is therefore
a need to adopt, for example, the 'labour
force approach' if the census is to measure
adequately the extent of labour force participation
and levels of employment/unemployment.
In this regard, a thorough
understanding of the concepts used in the
approach has to be imparted to national statisticians
in these economies who are charged with the
design of the questionnaire and analysis of
labour statistics. Lack of such understanding
can lead to ill-designed questionnaires and,
in turn, to invalid or unreliable statistics.
Political, religious
and civil conflicts that currently exist in
a number of countries in this region have
led to large numbers of internally displaced
persons and refugees. This situation has several
implications for the 2000 round of population
censuses not only within the countries where
these conflicts exist but in the neighbouring
countries as well. The concerned countries
need to ensure that such internally displaced
persons and refugees are accurately enumerated
and their characteristics recorded so that
national and international efforts to rehabilitate
them have well-grounded bases. The very situation
in which these groups of persons find themselves,
however, mitigates efforts to count them accurately.
While most of them may be living in camps,
many are known to have assimilated themselves
in regular domiciles and are therefore difficult
to catch. Fearful of eviction or otherwise
harsh treatment from the civil government,
some of them give false information to protect
themselves.
In view of their being
non-residents in the temporary location where
the census enumerators find them, they can
create a statistical dilemma for census organizations.
Census officials would have to take a decision
to either include or exclude them from the
regular statistical tables. If excluded, then
a separate report may have to be produced
to document their numbers, their geographic
distribution and characteristics. To include
them would, of course, complicate the statistics
which are used for a variety of administrative
and planning decisions concerning bona fide
residents of the area.
Traditionally, population
and housing censuses have not been designed
with specific needs for environmental analysis
in mind. Some of the items asked in past censuses,
however, have provided some basis for investigating
environmental concerns. For example, the question
on type of materials used for housing construction,
while intended mainly to ascertain housing
demand, is a potential source of information
on the pattern of use of indigenous raw materials
for housing. In addition, post-facto analysis
of population distribution across geographical
and ecological territories provided the main
approach to use of census data for an analysis
of population and environment linkages.
The need for more data
for environmental planning has increased the
demand to use the population and housing census
as a vehicle for the collection of relevant
information. Maldives, for example, owing
to its fragile ecosystem and its limited and
dispersed land resources, is planning to use
the census for collecting questions which
are directly related to environment.This means
that some of the usual questions asked in
a census will have to be dropped if the scope
of the census and its efficiency is to remain
optimal.
2/
United Nations, Methods of Measuring Women's
Economic Activity:Technical Report. Series
F, No. 59
III.
Implications of Developments in Information Technology
The implications of
recent developments in information technology
on statistical undertakings has been the subject
of discussion at a number of global and regional
meetings and conferences during the last decade.
The general consensus reached in these meetings
is that information technology has opened
opportunities for statistical activities to
be cost-effective and efficient and that,
where appropriate, statistical organizations
should adopt available technology to enhance
their statistical capacities.
The ESCAP secretariat
recently conducted the Workshop on Application
of New Information Techonology to Population
Data in Bangkok from 12-20 October; the recommendations
of this workshop in document STAT/WGSE.11/5
will be discussed under agenda item 5. It
may be mentioned at this point though that
the participants of the Workshop felt that,
while the discussions and presentations were
very informative and useful, its timing was
a bit too late for making decisions regarding
the 2000 round of censuses. As mentioned earlier,
many of the countries have either undertaken
their censuses or are in the advanced stage
of preparation.
Another important point
to raise at this time is perhaps the feeling
that the option for data capture for the small
and less developed countries in the region
is still manual key-in operation. The size
of the population, the lack of financial resources,
and the absence of technical support for the
newer technologies are among the reasons that
deter these countries from pursuing the adoption
of new technologies. It is interesting to
note that Malaysia, which had used OMR for
capturing data in its previous censuses, is
abandoning this approach in favour of manual
operations for its 2001 population census.
What seem to be feasible
and (in terms of cost) non-prohibitive applications
of new technology are the dissemination of
data through electronic media and publication
through the world wide web. Many of the statistical
offices in the region now have websites through
which they disseminate the statistics they
collect. There is, however, a need to redesign
the sites to make them more user-friendly
and more attractive in terms of the services
that they offer.
With increased affordability
and availability of computers in most countries,
and increasing computer literacy, it is anticipated
that many data users will now demand data
that they can further process and manipulate.
Use of floppy diskettes, CD-ROMs, and file
transfers through the internet seem to be
an efficient way of distributing large tabulations
or micro-level data bundled with table retrieval
software.
IV.
Implications of Available Donor Resources for
Population Censuses
A major concern among
statistical organizations in respect of the
conduct of population censuses is a dwindling
in the resources which have been traditionally
allocated by donors for this purpose. The
UNFPA, which has been one of the major donors
in this area, itself is facing such serious
financial constraints that it had to scale
down its level of funding for population programmes,
including data collection, in countries where
it provides support. Consequently, an increased
level of assistance appears remote, at least
for the 2000 round of population censuses.
This may have serious implications on the
ability of the least developed countries,
which depend to a large extent on donor resources,
to successfully carry out their next census.
In Nepal, preparations for the 2001 census
are underway through the assistance of multiple
donors, each contributing in small, albeit
significant, ways. There is still a need for
financial assistance, particularly, for the
data processing of the census. Unless such
assistance is forthcoming, the timely completion
of the Nepal census remains in jeopardy.
Since the beginning
of 1999, the advisory post for population
statistics in the UNFPA Suva Country Support
Team has been vacant. A recent decision of
the UNFPA suggests that the post will not
be filled. There would thus continue to be
a void in the availability of much needed
advisory services in the Pacific subregion.
In the light of seriously
diminished donor assistance now available
to data collection, in general, and the 2000
round of population censuses, in particular,
the need for technical cooperation among countries
has never been more urgent. Exchange of experiences
and expertise needs to be fostered so that
statisticians from the least developed countries
can benefit from experience of the relatively
advanced countries.
V.
Action by the Working Group
In this latter regard,
the Working Group may wish to recommend that
the Statistics Division of ESCAP attempt to
play an increasing role in facilitating technical
cooperation among countries. The Working Group
is also invited to give its views and comments
on the various developments and issues raised
in the document.
Annex
Countries and Areas in the ESCAP
Region by Population Size and Year of 2000 Round
Population Census