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I. ORGANIZATION
OF THE MEETING
1. The tenth session of the
Working Group of Statistical Experts, organized
by the secretariat of the Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP),
was held in Bangkok from 11 to 14 November 1997.
A. Attendance
2. The session was attended
by representatives of the following 25 members
and associate members of ESCAP: Australia;
Brunei Darussalam; China; Fiji; Hong Kong, China;
India; Indonesia; Iran (Islamic Republic of);
Japan; Macau; Malaysia; Maldives; Mongolia;
Myanmar; Nepal; New Caledonia; New Zealand;
Pakistan; Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russian
Federation; Singapore; Thailand; United States
of America; and Viet Nam.
3. The meeting was also attended
by representatives of the following United Nations
bodies and specialized agencies: United
Nations Centre for Human Settlements (Habitat),
United Nations Children's Fund, United Nations
Development Fund for Women, United Nations Population
Fund, International Labour Organization, Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization, International Monetary Fund and
United Nations Industrial Development Organization.
Representatives of the following intergovernmental
organizations also attended: Asian Development
Bank and Commonwealth of Independent States.
The Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific
was also represented.
B. Opening
of the meeting
4. The meeting was opened
by the Deputy Executive Secretary and Officer-in-Charge,
a.i. of ESCAP, who said she was impressed by
the strong representation from the countries
and the presence of several international and
regional agencies. She thanked the governments
and agencies for their support of the Committee
on Statistics, under the guidance of which the
Working Group provided important inputs to the
process of statistical development in the region
and an opportunity to discuss a broad range
of issues.
5. While recent significant
developments in some economies of the region
were having some negative effects, they could
also spur the need to reassess policies and
to review planning and monitoring mechanisms,
for which the timely availability of appropriate
data was of crucial importance. The Working
Group's discussions of related topics such as
data dissemination standards and the 1993 System
of National Accounts were particularly relevant.
Other agenda items, including population and
housing censuses, gender statistics, prices,
and the year 2000 problem also covered important
areas. In wishing the participants a successful
session, the Deputy Executive Secretary was
certain that the Working Group's deliberations
would help the secretariat implement relevant
statistical activities in the region.
6. It was noted that the
bureau of the tenth session of the Committee
on Statistics would officiate at the meeting
of the Working Group. Accordingly, Mr
Frederick W.H. Ho (Hong Kong, China) served
as chairperson, Mr Timoci Bainimarama (Fiji),
Mr M.D. Asthana (India), Ms Ch. Davaasuren (Mongolia)
and Ms Alice Goh (Singapore) as vice-chairpersons,
and Mr Romulo Virola (Philippines) as rapporteur.
7. The Working Group adopted
the following agenda:
- Opening of the session.
- Adoption of the agenda.
- Report of the bureau.
- An overview of significant
global and regional issues in official statistics.
- The year 2000 problem:
strategic issues for national statistical
services.
- The General Data Dissemination
System and Special Data Dissemination Standard.
- Population and housing
censuses.
- Gender statistics.
- Issues in implementing
the 1993 System of National Accounts.
- Price statistics.
- Review of the programme
of work in statistics, 1998-1999.
- Provisional agenda
for the eleventh session of the Committee
on Statistics.
- Other matters.
- Adoption of the report.
II. REPORT
OF THE BUREAU
8. The item was introduced
by the chairperson. It was noted that
over the past year the bureau had met formally
on one occasion, just prior to the Working Group
session, but bureau members had taken advantage
of other statistical meetings to exchange views
and had also been in correspondence with each
other and the secretariat, for example, in fulfilling
the mandate of the Committee on Statistics to
monitor the adoption of its terms of reference
by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia
and the Pacific.
9. The Working Group noted
that the major task undertaken by the bureau
had been to review the respective roles of the
Committee on Statistics, the Working Group of
Statistical Experts, the bureau and the secretariat.
That review, while precipitated in part by the
reduction in the duration of the next session
of the Committee on Statistics, aimed more fundamentally
at promoting the development of statistics in
the region and projecting a more proactive stance
for Asia and the Pacific onto the global scene,
despite significant resource constraints.
Such a process involved careful selection of
the most important issues, commitment among
various parties to a division of labour, the
promotion of contacts and collaboration, and
an increase in productivity by locating and
accessing low-cost or free methodological papers,
templates, computer programs and other available
resources.
10. The Working Group concurred
with the bureau's view that the Committee on
Statistics should concentrate on strategic issues,
making definitive decisions on directions of
change and development, commissioning work on
key areas of concern, and formulating consensus
or highlighting regional concerns at global
forums on important statistical issues.
The Working Group could take on a broad range
of subjects which would have to be accompanied
by sufficient pre-meeting preparations if discussions
in the Group were to be brief yet not superficial.
The Working Group deliberations, through the
crystallization of ideas and identification
of issues, could generate material for the Committee
on Statistics in its decision-making or other
strategic roles. Other expert groups could
be formed to discuss more specific topics.
11. The Working Group agreed
with the bureau's observation that the ESCAP
region was not adequately involved in the many
"city groups" that had been established to advance
methodological work in several areas of statistics.
Since those groups were very influential in
setting international statistical standards,
ways and means to increase the region's involvement
needed to be explored. While city groups
were generally open forums, in practice many
of the groups had limited membership.
The Working Group noted that the requirement
that participants had to pay their own way to
the groups and contribute in a substantive sense
might prove daunting obstacles to effective
participation. It nevertheless felt that
some, if not all countries in the region could
make a sound contribution to the deliberations
of the city groups. The Working Group
considered it important, if not necessary, that
developing country problems and issues should
be described and clearly understood in those
city group deliberations, especially when international
statistical standards were being formulated.
It was suggested that, as participation for
developing countries in the city groups would
be partly a proactive and partly a learning
process, the criteria for such participation
might be relaxed somewhat. The Working
Group held the view that it was important for
ESCAP countries and the secretariat to become
more involved in the work of the city groups.
It recognized the need to become organized concerning
information about the city groups, financing,
and substantive representation (perhaps by designation
of one or two countries for each group), and
to liaise with the United Nations Statistics
Division to ensure that the work of the city
groups remained accessible.
12. The Working Group also
concurred with the bureau's recommendation that
the information dissemination and communication
network centred at the secretariat should be
enhanced. In particular, it felt that
the Statistical Newsletter was a very important
vehicle for conveying information to help implement
many of the ideas and initiatives discussed.
Although concern was expressed over the slow
progress of establishing the ESCAP Statistical
Information System because of the severe resource
constraints facing the secretariat, the Working
Group nevertheless recognized the considerable
potential of the System; at the same time, it
felt that the secretariat should include on
the ESCAP home page some frequently used statistics,
modelled on the current publication Asia-Pacific
in Figures. The home page itself could
also be utilized more creatively with methodological
news, as an information clearing house for substantive
information, and so forth. Even in its
current format, the Statistics Division's home
page was found to be very useful, including
the links to the home pages of national statistical
offices, which contained detailed data.
13. The Working Group also
noted with satisfaction that the system of periodic
reporting by the secretariat regarding the decisions
and recommendations of the previous sessions
of the Committee on Statistics was a very good
means of tracking progress and assisted in the
review of work priorities from time to time.
The Working Group also noted with appreciation
the representation role played by the chairperson
of the Committee at the February 1997 session
of the United Nations Statistical Commission
and the third session of the Governing Board
of the Statistical Institute for Asia and the
Pacific (SIAP) in October 1997.
III. AN OVERVIEW
OF SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ISSUES IN
OFFICIAL STATISTICS
14. The Working Group reviewed
significant global and regional issues in official
statistics on the basis of secretariat paper
STAT/WGSE.10/2, which described some of the
developments relating to fields of official
statistics not covered under other agenda items.
The Working Group welcomed the paper and encouraged
the secretariat to continue gathering information
on current important statistical developments
and to pass it on to countries in the region.
Regional meetings to address important issues
could be organized by the secretariat when there
were indications that a sufficient number of
governments could bear the cost of their own
participation, and once the holding of the meetings
was confirmed, efforts might be made to seek
sources of funding for attendance by others
who might be significantly affected or concerned
but debarred from participating for financial
reasons.
15. With regard to general
statistical coordination at the subregional
level, the Working Group heard that the first
meeting of the Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN) Directors of Statistics had
been held in Jakarta in October 1997.
That meeting had strongly recommended that a
statistical unit be set up in the ASEAN secretariat,
which normally obtained data from sources other
than the countries themselves, leading to problems
of timeliness. The meeting had also decided
that statistical cooperation among ASEAN countries
should be strengthened, through on-the-job training
and other means.
16. The Working Group heard
that it was important for countries in transition
to learn from the experience of other countries
in formulating legislation and developing the
organizational structure to address problems
in the field of statistics. The Working
Group noted that financial assistance to transition
countries of the Former Soviet Union had so
far been concentrated on European countries.
It was hoped that future assistance would provide
more emphasis on the statistical development
of the Central Asian countries.
17. The Working Group agreed
that the Internet was an important medium of
data dissemination. There was a need for
each developing country to have access to e-mail
and Internet and to have a web site, and the
Working Group noted with appreciation that the
Asian Development Bank (ADB) had been assisting
some countries in that respect. The Working
Group recognized that it was important to consider
not only web site infrastructure but also the
contents of the web site and its presentation.
Existing sites could provide useful templates
for countries developing their own web sites
for presentation and dissemination of statistical
information.
18. The Working Group suggested
that a workshop to discuss ways of getting and
sharing information through the Internet should
be organized for countries in the region, perhaps
in conjunction with the Third Conference of
the Asian Regional Section of the International
Association for Statistical Computing, to be
held in Manila in December 1998. The Working
Group noted that the second meeting of the Working
Party on the Application of New Technology to
Population Data, planned to be organized in
the first quarter of 1998, would also be used
as a forum for discussion on the use of the
Internet for statistical activities.
19. The Working Group welcomed
the technical reports prepared by the United
Nations Statistics Division with the support
of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)
on civil registration and vital statistics.
The Working Group was reminded that 1995-1999
had been declared by the Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific as the quinquennium
on civil registration and vital statistics in
the region. Unfortunately, no progress
had been made on secretariat activities in support
of that declaration owing to the lack of extrabudgetary
funding. Yet, as there might be progress
made in that area within the countries, the
Working Group advised the secretariat to collate
information in that regard for general dissemination
as one means to prompt others to make efforts
during the rest of the quinquennium.
20. Poverty statistics was
being given a high priority in many countries
of the region. The Working Group recognized
the limitation of headcount measures of poverty,
and suggested that measures or indicators that
would help identify more precisely the target
populations for poverty alleviation programmes
should be further developed. Poverty assessment
had been conducted in some countries with financial
support from agencies such as the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP).
21. The Working Group was
informed that the United Nations Statistics
Division had so far tried unsuccessfully to
seek funding for the implementation of the Minimum
National Social Data Set (MNSDS) through the
conduct of pilot studies on national data sets.
Noting the endorsement of MNSDS by the Statistical
Commission, the Working Group recommended that
countries should be encouraged to start compiling
the necessary data. ADB informed the meeting
that much of the MNSDS data set for many countries
could be readily assembled from its existing
database. That might assist with the pilot
studies.
22. The Working Group noted
that a number of countries, both developing
and developed, were working on satellite accounts
on tourism, although difficulties were experienced
with different organizations advocating different
approaches. Environmental accounting was
another field where competing methodological
approaches were being encountered.
23. The Working Group noted
the work of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) on financial statistics, especially in
the complex field of financial derivatives where
a number of changes in the 1993 System of National
Accounts (SNA) had recently been agreed on by
the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National
Accounts and the IMF Balance-of-Payments Committee.
24. The Working Group was
informed that an international symposium on
the role of statistics for sustainable development
in Asia and the Pacific would be held in Tokyo
in late November 1997. The topics addressed
issues concerning statistics on human resources
development, the environment, the economy and
other related issues. The Working Group
welcomed the fact that ADB was assisting 11
countries to develop national frameworks for
the development of environmental data and considering
a second phase of the project to cover seven
further countries. The Working Group heard
that ADB was also working on an environmental
quality index.
IV. THE YEAR 2000
PROBLEM: STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR NATIONAL
STATISTICAL SERVICES
25. The Working Group reviewed
the implications of the year 2000 problem for
national statistical offices on the basis of
an oral report from the secretariat and two
documents: STAT/WGSE.10/3, "The year 2000
problem: some major issues to consider in the
context of statistical services", contributed
by the Census and Statistics Department, Hong
Kong, China, and STAT/WGSE.10/4, "Statistics
New Zealand experiences with year 2000 problem-solving",
contributed by Statistics New Zealand.
The year 2000 problem, colloquially known as
the Y2K problem, referred to computer hardware
and software, as well as chips embedded in security
systems, lifts etc, that were built or programmed
so that they used only two digits for the value
of the year, making them fail or produce erratic
results when the year 1999 (i.e., 99) changed
to 2000 (i.e., 00).
26. The Working Group noted
several reasons why the resolution of the Y2K
problem posed extraordinary challenges for all
public and private organizations, including
national statistical offices (NSOs). Those
reasons related not only to the technology itself,
but also to managerial responsibility, organization
and monitoring of corrective action, human and
financial resources, the availability and cost
of external expertise, and the extent to which
the organizations were dependent on each other's
computer systems. In addition, there was
a false sense of security as the established
systems were running smoothly, hiding any fatal
problems that would appear only at the turn
of the century. The Working Group noted
that the Y2K problem had already occurred in
some applications that were used for long-term
planning into the year 2000 and beyond.
While in several countries of the region the
mass media had provided a wealth of information
on the Y2K problem, the Working Group expressed
concern that the awareness of the problem was
not sufficiently high in most statistical offices.
27. The Working Group agreed
that the preferred solution to the problem was
to retire the non-compliant hardware and software
altogether or replace them with new systems,
but recognized that that would be expensive
and would require careful planning for the transition.
With respect to hardware acquisition, the Working
Group recommended that NSOs order their Y2K
compliant equipment well in advance so as to
allow sufficient time for its delivery and the
migration of operations into the new environment.
Because of the shortage of purchase budgets
and the short time-frame that was left for the
migration of statistical operations to new environments,
many old generation applications were likely
to be still in use after the turn of the millennium.
The fixing of the "bug" in the existing system
sometimes involved laborious line-by-line checking
of long programs. Almost all applications
had to be tackled individually as automated
solutions existed only for specific cases limited
by the type of hardware, operating system and
software.
28. The Working Group noted
that there had been a surge in the demand for
programmers who could fix the program codes
written in old computer languages, such as COBOL.
The global trend of migrating systems from mainframes
to personal computers and client-server environments
had occurred too recently to have phased out
all non-Y2K compliant applications. The
Working Group recognized that applications created
by end-users might pose special problems owing
to insufficient documentation or missing source
codes. It was not at all clear if even
those agencies that were fully seized of the
problem would be able to fix the bugs in all
their systems in time, especially when the program
testing often required as much time as amending
the non-compliant codes. The Working Group
noted with concern the likelihood that despite
all precautions, many Y2K bugs would be discovered
only after the turn of the century. The
Working Group observed that in some offices,
the information technology (IT) departments
appeared to rely strongly on suppliers of hardware
and software to come up with solutions to their
Y2K problems and had not considered the issue
as urgent.
29. The Working Group recognized
that it was a managerial challenge to address
the Y2K problem organization-wide. It
heard that only the most advanced NSOs had made
organization-wide Y2K plans and were now implementing
them. In those plans, top management had
assigned accountability for solving the Y2K
problem to each department. Such departments
were headed by senior middle managers.
The departments had to report periodically to
a high-level management group on their progress.
At the organization level, a dedicated coordinator
raised awareness of the problem and maintained
inventories and resource bases, including Web
links to Y2K sites on the Internet. The
advanced NSOs relied on in-house solutions rather
than outsourcing the problem solving.
The Working Group was informed that the Australian
Bureau of Statistics, which had 20 million lines
of program code to check, had set up a separate
year 2000 test environment, in which all amended
applications were tested before the respective
departments were given a sign-off for the completion
of the assignments. That procedure was
proving useful, as some applications that were
thought to have been fixed properly had failed.
30. Although the less advanced
statistical offices might eventually not be
in a position to solve the problem by themselves,
the Working Group felt that the heads of those
agencies should not avoid the responsibility
of initiating Y2K risk analysis and should take
action to prevent lurking catastrophes. That
responsibility extended to the NSOs' non-statistical
systems, such as administrative, personnel,
procurement and finance systems, as well as
systems that used embedded chips with date information.
The Working Group agreed in general that in
large organizations, such as national statistical
offices, the IT departments could not alone
be held responsible for solving the Y2K problem.
They did not have the resources to do so; they
also lacked access to departmental and individual
systems. Furthermore, over-reliance on
one department to solve the whole organization's
problems contained a high risk. Therefore,
the Working Group recommended that less advanced
offices should employ multidisciplinary and
team approaches adapted from the models of more
advanced offices.
31. The Y2K problem was in
no way limited to NSOs themselves. The
Working Group agreed that it had to be addressed
in the context of the wider statistical environment
involving data suppliers and data users.
A risk analysis was required in the NSOs to
assess whether their data suppliers were able
to continue providing information without interruption
and in the agreed electronic format. The
Working Group observed that hardware and software
vendors had not been keen to give legally binding
guarantees of their products' Y2K compliance.
Nevertheless, it recommended that NSOs include
a clause to that effect in their future procurement
contracts. It was noted that some clients
of one NSO had requested assurances on its own
Y2K compatibility; that NSO was in the process
of checking legal issues involved in such written
provision.
32. The Working Group agreed
that in most computer-intensive organizations
it was difficult to estimate how much work was
involved in discovering and fixing the "bug"
and in testing the computers and applications.
The cost of fixing the year 2000 problem depended
not only on the work-months required but also
on the unit price of the labour, which was already
well above the average cost of new development
and very likely to increase as the critical
date approached. The Working Group cautioned
the countries that the longer the problem-solving
was deferred, the higher the cost was likely
to be. The Working Group noted the enormous
cost estimates made at national and enterprise
levels in some advanced countries within and
outside the region. In contrast, the cost
was likely to be relatively small in countries
which had only very recently started to develop
computerized systems. Also, any new development
in modern environments was likely to be free
of year 2000 problems so long as the user-defined
date formats conformed with the four-digit year
expression. While the accuracy of the
high-end cost estimates could be ascertained
only afterwards, the Working Group felt that
those figures were sufficient to alert those
who had not started addressing the problem.
33. The Working Group recommended
that NSOs identify the implications of failure
of any of their systems in order to prioritize
which of the mission-critical applications should
be fixed first. The less important systems
could be fixed when the time and resources allowed.
The Working Group reminded the NSOs that the
backing up of data and program source codes
to external devices, or to independent and reliable
backup centres, was even more important than
usual as the new millennium approached.
34. Having reviewed the serious
technological and managerial challenges that
all countries in the region were facing within
a very short time, and having compared them
to scarce resources and low awareness, especially
in developing countries, the Working Group requested:
- The secretariat and the
bureau to create awareness through the oncoming
Commission session in April 1998 that the
Y2K problem posed a real, serious and potentially
economically hurting threat to the governments
in the region and that they needed to allocate
resources urgently to tackle the problem;
- The chairperson, secretariat
and the members of the United Nations Statistical
Commission from the region to raise the issue
in the forthcoming session;
- The secretariat to create
awareness of the Y2K problem in the countries
of the region by compiling and disseminating
information through its publications and web
site; such information should use non-technical
language and be disseminated widely;
- The secretariat and the
NSOs to facilitate the sharing of experience
in the region, especially from the governments
and NSOs that had tackled the problem with
some success and comprehensiveness;
- The secretariat to approach
the donor on the possibility of including
the Y2K issue on the agenda of the planned
seminar on IT applications, and hold it in
early 1998;
- The secretariat to investigate
if meetings on the Y2K issue could be held
soon outside the standard project funding
cycle;
- SIAP to investigate if it
could organize a training event in early 1998
on the Y2K issue.
35. Finally, the Working
Group cautioned NSOs not to wait for information
on other countries' experiences, since those
countries were far from completing their own
solutions.
V. THE GENERAL
DATA DISSEMINATION SYSTEM AND SPECIAL DATA DISSEMINATION
STANDARD
36. An introduction to the
work of IMF on the development of the data dissemination
standards was provided to the Working Group,
based on the following documents provided by
IMF: "From the SDDS to the GDDS:
experience thus far and work in progress" (STAT/WGSE.10/5),
and a background paper dated May 1997 containing
a detailed discussion draft of the General Data
Dissemination System (GDDS). Secretariat
note STAT/WGSE.10/6 was also considered by the
Working Group. The Working Group heard
that the international financial crises in late
1994 to early 1995 had focused attention on
the importance of comprehensive, timely, accessible
and reliable statistics. IMF had been
asked by its policy-making body in early 1995
to develop a set of standards to guide IMF member
countries in providing economic and financial
statistics to the public. It had been
recognized from the outset that a single standard
could not be developed that would apply to all
countries and circumstances, so the focus was
placed on devising a basic standard useful for
all countries and a more demanding standard
that would be relevant for countries that sought
access to the international financial markets.
37. The Working Group heard
that the latter standard, the Special Data Dissemination
Standard (SDDS), had been established in April
1996. Countries that subscribed to the
SDDS provided descriptions, or metadata, of
their data and data dissemination practices
and those were presented on the Internet on
the IMF Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board
(DSBB). As of mid-November 1997, 43 countries
had subscribed to SDDS, of which 10 were from
the ESCAP region. The most important recent
development in SDDS was the establishment of
hyperlinks between the DSBB and countries' own
Internet sites where the data were maintained.
The first review of SDDS was about to be undertaken
by the IMF Executive Board.
38. It was noted that GDDS
was aimed at all IMF member countries and was
in the final stages of development. While
the principal focus of SDDS was timeliness,
that of GDDS was improvement in data quality
in recognition of the fact that, for many countries,
improvement in quality would have to precede
improvement in dissemination practices.
The Working Group noted that, in addition to
the economic and financial data categories covered
by SDDS, GDDS also included a set of socio-demographic
indicators.
39. The Working Group expressed
appreciation of the fact that SDDS and GDDS
were in line with the objectives of the fundamental
principles of official statistics, and that
they had been developed with the aim of having
a beneficial impact on national statistical
services. While welcoming the fact that
the existence of such a prescribed standard
and system might generate additional resources
for statistics, the Working Group felt that
emphasis on adhering to the standard and system
might also cause resources to be diverted away
from other statistical activities.
40. The Working Group noted
that some 10 members in the region had subscribed
to SDDS, and that many of them, including statistically
advanced countries, still needed to make additional
effort to meet the stringent standard by the
end of the transition period in December 1998.
Some subscribing countries had been able to
mobilize additional resources for that purpose,
as well as obtain technical assistance from
IMF. The Working Group heard that the
transition plans ranged from relatively minor
matters to major substantive enhancements, including
the production of quarterly national accounts,
on which IMF was holding a further training
workshop in April 1998. The Working Group
also noted that countries could occasionally
fail to meet the timeliness requirement, especially
in respect of monthly data, owing to non-technical
factors beyond the control of the statistical
agencies. Some countries did not intend
to meet all the specifications in terms of the
periodicity of data, because of specific national
conditions; for example, it was considered counter-productive
by one country to provide monthly rather than
quarterly data for the consumer price index.
The Working Group noted that SDDS allowed for
flexibility options, but considered that more
flexibility options should be contemplated.
It heard that not one subscribing country had
fully complied with SDDS and welcomed the fact
that DSBB allowed countries to indicate their
practices with regard to the standards, including
use of flexibility options where relevant.
It likewise welcomed the plan of IMF to conduct
two more seminars in the region before the end
of the transition period.
41. The Working Group noted
with interest the beneficial impact experienced
by one country in subscribing to SDDS, which
had helped to reinforce efforts in promoting
the use of official statistics. The use
of the DSBB hyperlink to the national statistical
office's home page had also helped users and
the number of "hits" on the home page had been
on the increase. In other countries SDDS
had helped to raise awareness of official data,
and had been recognized as a set of good practices
which it was important to work towards.
42. The Working Group agreed
that the availability of data according to SDDS
could not preclude financial crises, but felt
that more detailed and timelier relevant data
could have a role in ameliorating their adverse
impacts. IMF had already recognized that
an additional item on net international reserves,
yet to be defined precisely, might be added
to SDDS. The Working Group noted further
that the scope of data under SDDS might not
meet the demands of all users, but would help
users in pursuing what they might need from
the relevant sources.
43. The Working Group recognized
the importance of SDDS and particularly GDDS
as a type of master framework for the development
of national statistical systems. GDDS
in fact highlighted what were well-known problems
and long-standing shortcomings common to many
statistically less advanced countries.
The Working Group welcomed the possibility that
the advent of GDDS would not only result in
technical assistance for implementation of the
System but also provide a stronger argument
for support to statistical infrastructure generally.
44. The Working Group noted
that the draft GDDS would be considered by the
Executive Board of IMF in December 1997 and
urged interested countries to submit their comments
for consideration before GDDS was finalized.
The meeting welcomed the preliminary plans of
IMF to conduct two seminars on GDDS for countries
in the region, one in July 1998 for larger countries
and another in 1999 for island countries.
The Working Group considered that SDDS and GDDS
would have a significant impact on national
statistical services. It also emphasized
the need for coordination among international
agencies in the adoption of statistical and
data dissemination standards and the avoidance
of duplicative requests to countries, which
would increase the already heavy compliance
burden on national statistical offices.
Inter-agency coordination was also necessary
in the provision of technical assistance to
countries seeking to participate in GDDS.
The Working Group also suggested that the topic
of SDDS and GDDS should be brought to the attention
of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia
and the Pacific at its next session in 1998,
to impress on policy makers the need for additional
resources for national statistical agencies
to respond to SDDS/GDDS requirements, as well
to the Statistical Commission and its Working
Group.
VI. POPULATION
AND HOUSING CENSUSES
45. The Working Group considered
the agenda item on the basis of the secretariat
note STAT/WGSE.10/7, entitled "The 2000 decade
of population and housing censuses: recent developments",
and a document contributed by the National Statistical
Office of Mongolia entitled "Preparation for
the 2000 Population and Housing Census in Mongolia"
(STAT/WGSE.10/8). In addition, a demonstration
was presented by the representative of the United
States of America on the software Census Design
System (CDS) and Integrated Microcomputer Processing
System (IMPS), version 4.1, produced by the
International Programs Center of the United
States Bureau of the Census. The Working
Group noted that the CDS software was intended
to assist in creating questionnaires, manuals
and tabulation plans and had an interface to
IMPS. Both software applications were
developed to work in the Windows 95 environment,
and provided users with a great measure of flexibility
and options for establishing interfaces with
other word-processing and spreadsheet software.
46. In discussing the revised
Principles and Recommendations for Population
and Housing Censuses, endorsed by the Statistical
Commission in February 1997, the Working Group
expressed its concern about the addition of
disability as a new topic. While recognizing
the importance of disability statistics for
social and welfare programme planning, the Working
Group nevertheless felt that the topic might
be too sensitive to include in a census and
raised difficult methodological and conceptual
issues. The Working Group noted that disability
questions had been included in a number of earlier
censuses in the region and in many cases the
resulting data were not considered to be of
sufficient quality to warrant publication.
It also noted that some countries felt the potential
usefulness of disability information from the
census was in providing a frame for follow-up
sample surveys.
47. The Working Group felt
it was important for national statistical offices
contemplating the inclusion of disability questions
in their census to exercise caution and to resist
pressure from users if it were felt that the
results would be unreliable. Given the
strong doubts expressed by the Working Group
about the utility of including the topic of
disability in a census, and given the expected
pressure on statistical offices to adopt the
Principles and Recommendations, several participants
questioned the process which had resulted in
its addition to the United Nations global recommendations.
The Working Group noted that it had not been
possible to organize a regional meeting on preparations
for the 2000 round of population and housing
censuses, which would have provided an opportunity
for the region to discuss census principles
and recommendations.
48. The Working Group emphasized
the importance of focusing on the needs of clients
or users in designing a population census strategy.
A positive change had occurred in the past few
years in terms of moving away from an emphasis
on census inputs and processes towards outputs
and dissemination of results. That change had
brought benefits to users and contributed to
improvements in census quality. As users
gained understanding of censuses, quality was
put under greater scrutiny, for example, by
forcing the results of post-enumeration surveys
to be made public.
49. Several views were presented
on the costs of censuses. The Working
Group noted the experience of some countries
which felt that censuses need not become more
expensive over time. With improved statistical
infrastructure and technology, it was possible
to reduce costs and improve timeliness.
The Working Group noted that several countries
were now in a better position to produce census
results quickly. To exploit the possibilities
for reducing costs it was necessary to consider
successive censuses as an ongoing process.
Often the benefits of developments in one census,
for example, in automating data entry or coding
operations, would only be fully realized in
the following census.
50. Other countries felt,
however, that it was difficult to reduce the
costs of a census. While it was possible
to spread costs by devolving some operations
from national statistical offices to local governments
or to householders, that might not necessarily
result in a reduction of the total costs. The
Working Group noted that the Working Party on
the Application of New Technology to Population
Data, which had met recently in Bangkok, had
proposed that greater use could be made of outsourcing
some tasks, which, if followed up properly,
might also contribute to reducing census costs.
51. The Working Group considered
the relative merits of a full census compared
with a large sample survey. The advantage
of a large survey was the possibility it offered
for reducing costs and increasing the number
of topics that could be covered. Only
a full census, however, could provide the benchmark
data that countries needed or meet the demand
for data for small areas and small population
groups. It was also emphasized that the
full census provided an ideal sampling frame,
although the Working Group acknowledged that
a large sample could also serve that purpose.
The Working Group noted that an increasing number
of countries were now combining both full enumeration
and sampling methods simultaneously in censuses,
or alternating between complete censuses and
sample censuses, especially in agriculture,
where a complete census was very expensive.
52. The Working Group voiced
a concern that the external funding for the
next census round might be at a lower level
than in the past. It felt that donor assistance
was urgently needed and noted the recent meetings
which had been organized for potential donors
of the censuses in central Asian countries.
53. The Working Group noted
the history of population and housing censuses
in Mongolia. The census was regarded as
a major administrative and managerial exercise
in statistics in the country, which involved
the challenge of dealing with a large nomadic
population. The next population and housing
census would be the eighth in the country, but
the first under the new conditions of transition
to a market economy and the changed status of
the NSO as an independent agency under the Parliament.
The changing circumstances had brought into
focus new concepts for the census such as the
homeless, poverty and classification of occupations.
The need to pay attention to user needs and
to confidentiality of individual responses also
became a concern. The Working Group was
informed that the next population and housing
census had had to be postponed from 1999 to
the year 2000. In that census, involvement
of the local governments would be sought and
greater emphasis would be placed on the training
of the staff, including training in the analysis
of census data.
VII. GENDER STATISTICS
54. The Working Group considered
the topic on the basis of secretariat note STAT/WGSE.10/9
and contributed paper STAT/WGSE.10/10 entitled
"Improving gender statistics in the Philippines".
55. The Working Group noted
that the secretariat had been implementing two
projects on gender statistics, and would continue
to encourage countries in the region to give
priority to the development of gender statistics
in specific areas where data were deficient.
56. The Working Group welcomed
the presentation on the development of gender
statistics in the Philippines, and noted with
interest the country's experience and lessons
learned. The impetus originated from the
country's commitment to support the declarations
of a number of international conferences on
women and the subsequent national legislation
and/or mechanisms which had been formulated.
57. Aimed at generating gender
statistics to monitor implementation of programmes
related to gender issues, the Philippine Statistical
System (PSS) had undertaken several activities
with some significant outputs, including statistical
publications, a database on women and the development
of an indicator system on gender and development.
Current efforts included the generation of statistics
on violence against women and children and on
human development with a gender dimension.
A number of issues and concerns were identified
with emphasis made on the need for statistical
agencies to (a) recognize that it was their
responsibility to support the statistical requirements
of gender-related programmes, (b) prioritize
the types of statistics that should be generated,
(c) develop appropriate methodologies for collecting
data on gender issues/concerns, and (d) institutionalize
the production of gender statistics. It
was emphasized that the generation of gender
statistics was not simply the disaggregation
of data by sex but the generation of statistics
on identified gender concerns.
58. The Working Group heard
that some countries in the region had attempted
to collect data on gender-sensitive issues,
sometimes as part of a set of social indicators.
By using official and unofficial data from various
sources, several statistical publications had
been produced and were scheduled to be revised
in the near future.
59. The Working Group also
heard that many countries had encountered similar
problems such as inadequacy of concepts and
definitions of some gender-based statistics;
the need to gender-sensitize staff prior to
collecting data; unwillingness of victims of
domestic violence to relate their experience;
difficulty of measuring the gender dimension
of certain economic indicators etc. It
was also noted that a number of countries, such
as Australia, Japan and the Philippines, had
conducted time-use surveys on a nationwide scale
or in small areas and that their experience
could be shared with others.
60. The difficulties in evaluating
the economic contribution of women, especially
in the informal sector, were noted by the Working
Group. In some countries, economic activities
were not always recognized as such by women
themselves. The Working Group heard that
the monetary valuation of unpaid work had been
attempted in more advanced countries such as
Japan. Action plans for measuring paid
and unpaid work and for classification of the
work of women had been formulated in some countries,
with financial and technical support from international
agencies such as UNDP as well as from bilateral
sources.
61. The Working Group urged
SIAP to review and include more modules on gender
statistics in its training programmes, particularly
in methodology and analysis. The secretariat
was likewise urged to seek financial support
from the donor in order to complete the printing
of the set of 16 profiles on women produced
under the project on improving statistics on
women in the ESCAP region.
62. The Working Group recognized
the importance of public awareness of gender
issues in moving towards gender equity, and
noted that user-producer meetings on the utilization
of gender statistics could help to raise public
awareness.
VIII. ISSUES IN
IMPLEMENTING THE 1993 SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
63. The Working Group considered
the agenda item on the basis of secretariat
document STAT/WGSE.10/11 entitled "Implementation
in countries of the ESCAP region" and document
STAT/WGSE.10/12 entitled "Implementation of
the 1993 SNA in Thailand" prepared and presented
to the meeting by the National Economic and
Social Development Board of Thailand (NESDB).
64. It was noted that the
full 1993 SNA could be implemented on an incremental
basis, in terms of data availability and analytical
requirements. The different phases served
conveniently to represent the different levels
of SNA implementation, though countries did
not have to proceed sequentially through the
"milestones" developed by the Inter-Secretariat
Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA).
The Working Group noted that countries in the
region which until recently had been compiling
their national accounts based on the earlier
versions of SNA, or on the System of Balances
of the National Economy (MPS), had begun to
pursue activities towards implementing the 1993
SNA.
65. The Working Group recognized
the efforts of Thailand in commencing implementation
of the 1993 SNA even though the existing compilation
was based on the 1953 version. In responding
to the demands of policy-making, input-output
tables, flow of funds, and regional and provincial
accounts had been compiled incorporating elements
of the 1968 SNA. The Working Group also
noted with interest the assessment by NESDB
of national accounts compilation based on the
milestones recommended by ISWGNA, showing the
phases vis-à-vis what was wanted and
what already existed, and indicating the areas
where improvements were sufficient or where
new complementary data sets were needed.
66. The Working Group heard
with interest the experience of economies in
transition in implementing the 1993 SNA.
It noted that the change to a market economy
necessitated changes in the original statistical
data collection system, and that additional
data were required to augment those originally
needed for the compilation of accounts based
on the MPS. For example, price statistics
presented a problem since prices had often been
held constant in the planned economy, while
some services had been provided free.
The Working Group noted some problems faced
by the independent states of the Former Soviet
Union in their efforts to compile the national
accounts. It also appreciated the efforts
of the Interstate Statistical Committee of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in
providing assistance for building up the capacity
for national accounts compilation in CIS countries.
It heard with interest the progression in one
country from MPS to an SNA-based economic accounting
system and recently to adopting the 1993 SNA.
67. The Working Group recognized
the practical difficulties in collecting credible
data on illegal economic activities, activities
in the hidden economy and on the informal sector.
It noted the experience of some countries which
made use of indirect methods to estimate those
data. It also took note of the lack of
information and practical difficulties in measuring
transactions of Non-Profit Institutions Serving
Households (NPISH), which were currently included
with those of households, as those sectors engaged
in both non-market and market activities.
68. The Working Group heard
that some countries had reservations on the
capability of the countries in the region to
achieve full implementation of the 1993 SNA
in view of the practical difficulties in implementing
several of its recommendations. In that
regard, a call was made to review the recommendations
of the 1993 SNA concerning the inclusion of
illegal activities and to incorporate changes
where necessary. The Working Group was
informed that the ISWGNA, which had been responsible
for producing the 1993 SNA, had remained active
in responding to outstanding and emerging issues
it had not fully dealt with. In particular
the ISWGNA had developed procedures for dealing
with changes proposed in the 1993 SNA; it would
deliberate on the correct treatment of transactions
of types that had recently become important
in the economy, and would review those on which
no agreement among the experts could be arrived
at during the revision process. The Working
Group noted, for example, that financial derivatives
which had first surfaced in the early 1980s
had since become important and had changed in
character. The ISWGNA had recently resolved
that financial derivatives were to be treated
as financial assets, and that transactions related
to them should be recorded in the Financial
Accounts. An additional asset category
for financial derivatives would be included
in the asset classification. Those changes
would be reflected in both SNA and the balance
of payments.
69. The Working Group noted
the efforts of the countries in the compilation
of quarterly and regional/provincial accounts
and appreciated the practical problems encountered
in allocating value added to economic activities
which cut across geographical boundaries.
It noted similar problems in estimating quarterly
transactions for which there was a shortage
of basic data. The sharing of experience
among countries would help facilitate such compilations.
The Working Group also heard apprehensions on
the implication of additional activities which
could overload the capacity of the national
statistical system, to the detriment of the
quality of national accounts statistics.
70. The Working Group expressed
appreciation for the various types of assistance
provided by ADB, IMF, SIAP and other multilateral
and bilateral agencies with the aim of strengthening
the capacity of the countries in the compilation
of national accounts, and looked forward to
the continuation of such assistance. The
secretariat's advisory services in national
accounts and the forthcoming series of subregional
workshops were similarly strongly appreciated
and supported. The Working Group also
welcomed the offer of Japan to provide the advisory
services of national accounts experts through
the technical cooperation scheme of the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
IX. PRICE STATISTICS
71. The Working Group considered
the agenda item on the basis of document STAT/WGSE.10/13,
"The CPI and other price statistics developments
in Australia", prepared by the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. The Working Group noted with
appreciation the quality of the paper presented,
and keen interest was expressed in obtaining
the documentation referred to in it.
72. The Working Group noted
that measurement of inflation was a crucial
input expected of statisticians for policy-making,
but statisticians were faced with problems in
the absence of an internationally accepted set
of concepts and definitions to underpin inflation
measurements. The Working Group heard
with interest about the review of the Australian
Consumer Price Index (CPI) undertaken by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics. It also
noted the development of an analytical framework
for measuring inflation based on a "market transactions"
approach defined by the interaction of demand
and supply factors in the market place.
73. The Working Group noted
that the analytical framework showed alternative
but complementary views of the economy through
different markets. The framework showed
transactions on domestic final purchases divided
into current consumption and capital expenditure,
and transactions of other purchases into labour
and intermediate inputs. The price index
of domestic final purchases would serve as a
basis for an economy-wide inflation measure.
One of its components, the Household Consumption
Purchases Price Index, was analogous to the
present CPI but excluded mortgage interest and
consumer credit charges, as well as payments
for goods and services purchased by households
at non-market-determined prices. It was
a priority for development, being the major
component (about two thirds) of the domestic
final purchases index. Other indexes within
the analytical framework included the labour
cost index, the export price index, and producer
price indexes, which tried to eliminate multiple
counting of commodities flowing through different
stages of the production process.
74. The Working Group noted
that though the CPI had been compiled regularly
by a large number of countries over the past
few decades, and had been serving many important
purposes, technical problems persisted.
Those included the treatment of changes in the
quality of goods over time; the treatment of
services subsidized by the government and subsequently
subject to a change in pricing policy, such
as education and health services in many countries;
the treatment of rent and owner-occupied housing
services; and the treatment of interest on mortgages
and consumer credit. It noted that the
accuracy of the CPI using the Laspeyres formula
might need to be reviewed in view of the impact
of changes in household income and of the substitution
effect. The Working Group noted that though
the publication on CPIs produced by ILO provided
guidance on some of the technical issues, circumstances
in different countries dictated the need to
adapt international standards to suit local
conditions.
75. The Working Group noted
that there were variations in the calculation
of annual changes in price indexes, which could
result in substantially different measures for
inflation; it suggested that standardization
of methodology in that and other respects would
improve comparability across countries.
The Working Group noted with interest that some
countries had succeeded in cutting costs of
CPI compilation by restricting the number of
collection centres without affecting the quality
of the index, since studies had shown that price
movements in other centres were quite similar.
76. The Working Group heard
with interest the progress in the evaluation
of the International Comparison Programme (ICP),
which had been requested by the Statistical
Commission. It noted that the report prepared
by a consultant was under review and would be
presented to the Working Group on International
Statistical Programmes and Coordination in February
1998. The Working Group also noted that
the secretariat hoped to secure financial support
for conducting the next ICP comparison for the
ESCAP region for the reference year 1999.
It expressed appreciation to the World Bank
for providing the secretariat with both technical
and financial support, and hoped that the 1999
comparison results would be produced quickly,
since the lack of timeliness had been a major
drawback in previous ICP phases. The Working
Group recalled its discussion on SDDS and noted
that ICP results would be a very useful alternative
to measuring the real GDP of countries in the
face of exchange rate volatility among countries
in the region. It expressed concern about
the data that might appear in the forthcoming
World Development Report, which compared gross
domestic product per capita based mainly on
currency exchange rates over time.
X. REVIEW OF THE
PROGRAMME OF WORK IN STATISTICS, 1998-1999
77. The Working Group had
before it secretariat note STAT/WGSE.10/14.
The note provided information on the implementation
of the programme of work in statistics for 1996-1997,
and on the work programme for 1998-1999 which
had been approved by the Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific and was
currently under consideration by the General
Assembly. The Working Group was informed
that for the biennium 2000-2001, the secretariat
would be expected to draft the programme of
work before the next session of the Committee
in 1998, and therefore it was important for
the Working Group to provide its suggestions
on the approach and the priorities that the
secretariat might employ.
78. Concerning the programme
of work in statistics, 1998-1999, the Working
Group noted the suggestion of the bureau that
there was a need to give more attention to poverty
measurement and to facilitate participation
of countries from the region in the city groups.
It welcomed the plan to conduct workshops on
poverty measurement and gender statistics.
The bureau had also emphasized that the Statistical
Newsletter should be assigned higher priority
and released on a timely basis. The Working
Group commended the secretariat on the establishment
of a very useful and informative home page for
the Statistics Division on the Internet and
recommended that it should be further enhanced
and used for releasing the latest information
on matters of interest to NSOs, including that
on the city groups. It noted that during
the biennium 1996-1997 a number of outputs,
including a meeting on improved management and
organization of national statistical services,
could not be delivered owing to a lack of extrabudgetary
funds. In the past, SIAP/ESCAP had organized
a series of such meetings, dealing with selected
priority management issues, which had been found
very useful. The Working Group urged the
secretariat and SIAP to continue actively to
seek funding and other arrangements for organizing
meetings under that series, focusing on topics
of priority concern, including the year 2000
problem. In addition, organization of
such meetings and other expert groups would
be more certain if members and associate members
of ESCAP were able to pay for their own participation.
The Working Group discussed the proposed wall
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