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ESCAP 2005 Economic and Social Survey: Ageing
seen as big threat to future and present economy
 The
ESCAP 2005 Economic and Social Survey, released on 25 April, identifies
graying of the region as one of the biggest threat to present and
future economy, along with the oil price spiral, the fall of the
US dollar, tsunami fallout and other natural disasters.
The Survey, entitled “Dealing with Shocks”, places great
emphasis on population ageing in Asia and the Pacific and warns
Governments to reform policy design, particularly in health and
pension systems.
Relative ageing of the older population itself and a rising share
of women in older age groups are becoming notable features of the
ageing process in the region, the Survey notes.
Governments will increasingly be under pressure not only to devise
innovative mechanisms to deal with issues arising from an ageing
population but also to ensure the long-term viability of social
welfare programmes, while minimizing negative effects on the economy,
the Survey notes.
The diversity of ageing in the region means that different policy
responses are called for in different countries depending on their
current and expected level of ageing. Fundamental changes in policy
design will be necessary in many developing countries to minimize
the pressures on service delivery, public expenditure and overall
growth potential of the economy, it states, noting that the severity
and complexity of such challenges would depend on the stage of economic
development, the stage of ageing and the level of preparedness.
The Survey calls for reforms in the labour market as well “to
meet the challenges and seize the opportunities presented by population
ageing”, noting that international migration could play an
important role in offsetting many of the consequences of population
ageing and labour shortages.
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| A rising share of
women in older age groups is one feature of the ageing process
(Photo by Han Htay Aung) |
I hope the analysis and policy options outlined in the Survey will
help member countries take bold actions in two ways: transform the
challenge of ageing into an opportunity to improve living standards
and make old age population more productive by providing training
and a flexible working environment”, said Mr. Kim Hak Su,
UNESCAP’s Executive Secretary at the launch of the Survey.
The Survey also looks at trends in the regional economy in 2004
and the policy choices facing the region. It states that the tsunami
disaster of 26 December 2004 occurred too late to affect 2004 economic
performance but that the impact on economic growth in 2005 would
be very severe in some cases, in particular in the smaller economies
such as Maldives and Sri Lanka owing to their heavy reliance on
tourism and fisheries. Despite the increase in oil prices, the weakness
of the dollar and softening external conditions in the latter part
of the year, in 2004 ESCAP economies grew at their fastest pace
since 2000, with an estimated growth rate of 7.2 per cent, the Survey
notes.
Prospects for 2005 indicate a slowdown in gross domestic product
(GDP) growth in the ESCAP region to an estimated 6.2 per cent as
the external environment weakens, with inflation slowing slightly
to an estimated 4.6 per cent. However, the Survey notes, forecasts
are subject to a higher margin of error than a year ago owing to
the prevailing uncertainty regarding the future course of oil prices.
One of ESCAP’s flagship publication, the Survey was used to
initiate debate on economic and social policy during the 61st session
of the Commission and will also be used at the Economic and Social
Council session in New York next July to help countries prepare
effective policies.
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