The world’s population in 2300 is likely to be around nine billion, lower than previous long-range forecasts, while the population will continue to age rapidly thanks to improving longevity. These are
some of the findings of groundbreaking new projections released in early December by the United Nations Population Division.

World Population in 2300 issued by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) is the first formal United Nations population report to forecast projections until 2300 rather than 2150, the
previous horizon. It is also the first to have long-range projections for each country, and not just
each continent.

The forecast of nine billion people in 2300 (up from the current level of 6.3 billion people) is based
on world fertility levels stabilizing at about two children per woman. DESA stresses that this is a medium scenario and that small variations in fertility levels could have enormous impacts in the long term.

As little as one-quarter of a child under the two-child norm, or one-quarter of a child above the
norm could lead to results in world population ranging from 2.3 billion to 36.4 billion in 2300. Another scenario, undertaken for the sake of illustration, finds that if fertility levels remain unchanged at today’s levels, world population would soar to 244 billion persons in 2150 and 134 trillion in 2300, clearly indicating that current levels of high fertility cannot continue indefinitely.

Another finding of the report is that world population will continue to age rapidly. According to the medium scenario, the number of persons aged 60 years and over would rise from 10 per cent of the
world population today to 38 per cent in 2300. The percentage aged 80 and over will rise from just 1 per
cent today to 17 per cent in 2300.

World Population in 2300 is available at http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longr
ange2/longrange2.htm

(Sources: DESA, Press Release, 9 December; UN News Service, 9 December)