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I. ASIA-PACIFIC POPULATION FUTURE
Implications for policy

ESCAP secretariat

Introduction

Population dynamics in the ESCAP region are so diverse as to make any generalizations impossible. Moreover, recent developments in the globalization of markets have resulted in the increased movement of capital and labour across countries within and outside the region. This movement, when viewed in conjunction with the changing age structure mediated through its impact on the labour market, creates both opportunities for, and challenges to, development. These, together with the rapidly changing macroeconomic environment, including the shift away from central planning to allowing the free play of market forces, have implications for development and for the formulation and implementation of population programmes. The situation varies from country to country and from time to time. Hence, the interplay of population dynamics, including changing population distribution, household structure, migration and socio-economic development, has to be viewed according to the specific situation in each country.

The objective of the present paper is to provide a broad overview of population dynamics in the ESCAP region. The overview is intended to set the stage for a fruitful dialogue on the issues of population and development, including policy formulation and the implementation of programmes arising from the Bali Declaration on Population and Sustainable Development, and the Programme of Action adopted at the International Conference on Population and Development.

1. Population size and growth

According to the 1996 revision of the population estimates made by the United Nations (United Nations, 1996a), the population of the ESCAP region, which stood at 3.52 billion in 1995, will increase to 3.75 billion by the turn of the century and to 4.58 billion by the year 2020 (see table I.1). Therefore, the region's population is expected to increase by about 1 billion, or by 30 per cent, within the span of 25 years from 1995 to 2020.

The average annual rate of population growth is declining in the region, although it will remain above 1 per cent a year in South and South-West Asia, and South-East Asia, and the Pacific island countries until 2020. While population growth is moderate (less than 1 per cent a year) in East and North-East Asia, it is nearly stationary in North and Central Asia. The projected average annual additions to the total population of the ESCAP region as a whole show a decline from around 47 million during the period 1995-2000 to 39 million during the period 2010-2020. Of this increase, not only is the share highest in South and South-West Asia, but the share of the increase will also rise to 60 per cent of the region's total by the first decade of the new century, after which it will remain constant. As can be seen from figure I.1, the average annual addition to the total population in the ESCAP region peaked during the year 1990, and is projected to decline steadily as countries move towards lower levels of fertility.

Table I.1 Population size and growth by geographical subregion,
1995-2020 (thousands)

Figure I.1 Population growth and quinquennial increments: ESCAP region,
1950 to 2050

2. Intraregional variations

Although the general trend of population growth is the same across all regions, despite the differing levels noted in the previous section, there are significant differences in the projected population growth among countries within and across subregions. Countries expected to register the largest population increases during the period 1995-2020 are Marshall Islands (118%), Maldives (110%), Bhutan (85%), Pakistan (82%), Vanuatu (80%) and Nepal (74%).

Migration does not a play a significant role in the population growth of most countries, except for some Pacific island territories that have agreements with Australia and New Zealand, in the Central Asian republics, and countries such as the Philippines, that have high levels of out - migration. The volume of migrants, though high and increasing, is small in relation to the population size of most countries. However, international movements, including undocu- mented or illegal migration, do play a role in the population and development dynamics of the region.

3.Components of population growth

Indicators of the levels of fertility and mortality of countries in the ESCAP region are shown in table I.2. There are diversities in the levels of mortality and fertility among subregions, and the differences are even larger among countries within the subregions.

The region's most advanced countries (Australia, Japan and New Zealand) and some of the most rapidly expanding economies (for example, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand) have total fertility rates (TFRs) below the replacement level. Among the less developed countries in the region the variation is highest, ranging from below the replacement level to the high levels that characterize pre-transitional societies. It is clear, however, that the fertility transition is well under way in most countries of the region.

With the exception of the least developed countries (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cambodia and the Lao People's Democratic Republic) where life expectancy is still below 55 years, mortality is very low. In many countries, including some of the region's developing countries, such as Sri Lanka, expectation of life at birth has reached or is approaching 70 years.

The data reveal several features that raise cause for concern. For instance, the expectation of life at birth for males and females is nearly the same in South and South-West Asia, unlike in other subregions and in most countries, where it is very much in favour of females. This pattern for South and South-West Asia suggests that in this subregion women, compared with men, suffer from excess mortality. Another feature is the unexpectedly high levels of mortality of males compared with females in the countries of North and Central Asia.

High maternal mortality is characteristic of many countries of the region. It is due in part to the factors that affect the health-seeking behaviour of women. It is also due to the low levels of health service delivery and lack of adequately trained health personnel in the countries concerned, and to the persistence of high to moderate levels of fertility in many of them. Moreover, the unmet need for family planning, including that of adolescents and unmarried youth, results in unplanned pregnancies. This situation can lead to abortion and, in many instances, to the death of the mother, both of which are clearly avoidable.

4. Implications for age structure

A classification of selected countries and areas of the ESCAP region by their fertility and mortality levels is shown in table I.3. It is clear from the table that Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cambodia and the Lao People's Democratic Republic remain the countries in the region that are the least advanced along the path of the demographic transition, with Maldives, the Federated States of Micronesia and Pakistan only marginally more advanced. Other similarly placed countries include Nepal, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. As the demographic transition in these countries has yet to begin, or is in its early stages, population growth will remain high well into the next century. In countries such as Bangladesh, India and Myanmar, the potential for substantial further growth cannot be ruled out as mortality rates decline further.

At the other end of the spectrum are the region's advanced economies (Australia, Japan, Macau, New Zealand and Singapore), where the population is expected to register only modest additions through natural increase. Among the countries in which fertility is below the replacement level are the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea and Thailand; however, a moderate increase in the populations of these societies may be expected in the near future owing to the built-in momentum of their past population growth.

The variations in the dynamics of population change manifest themselves in a differential age structure. This is shown by the examples given in figure I.2. In the most advanced countries of the region, the age structure will shift towards a higher median age and higher proportions of older persons in the total population. Depending upon the time at which the fertility decline began and replacement fertility was reached, it also shows declines in the childhood and young adult years. In countries such as Pakistan, where fertility remains high and further declines in mortality are possible, the age structure will remain young, resulting in a continued increase in population size at childhood and young adult ages.

Figure I.2 Age-sex distribution of the population of selected countries, 2000 and 2020

A. Changing age-sex structure

The age groups used for analysis of the changing age structure are 6-11, 10-19, 15-24, 60-69 and 70+, which correspond approximately to primary school, adolescence, youth, the "young-old" and "old-old" years. In table I.4, the projected trend in the numbers in each age group, and the proportions of the total population in each age group, are shown for the subregions.

1. Primary school-age population

For the ESCAP region as a whole, the number of children in the primary school years has been declining. This trend, however, is not uniform across subregions, with the regional picture showing a combination of the net effect of significant increases in some regions and a precipitous decline in others. After 2010, a reversal of declines, resulting from the interplay of fertility and age structure, will occur in some subregions.

In the countries of East and North-East Asia, which are affected significantly by trends in China, the primary school-age population will register significant declines in absolute terms, potentially paving the way for a diversion of resources away from expanding education opportunities to improvements in the quality of education. This situation will help countries in that subregion to meet demands for skilled labour and, at the same time, increase the productivity of labour (see ADB, 1997). At the other end of the spectrum are South and South-West Asia, where the goal of universal primary education remains elusive for most countries. With the primary school-age population increasing up to the year 2010 -- and well beyond in countries such as Pakistan -- investment in basic education will have to receive high priority in their social development agenda, at least for the next two decades, if the benefits that can be obtained from an increasingly globalizing economy are to be realized (ibid).

2. Adolescent and youth populations

Overall, the population of adolescents and youth will register an increase for the next 10-15 years, before starting to decline. The next 10-15 years, therefore, are important in that the increasingly large cohorts of adolescents and young adults will face a rapidly changing economic and social environment, characterized by both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities exist because of, first, the high rate of economic growth and labour demand that characterizes an increasing number of countries in the ESCAP region and, second, easy access to information. By contrast, challenges arise because of the changes in family structure and values that are taking place at a pace to which the cohorts of different generations, parents and children, find it difficult to adjust and adapt.

Despite advances in education, the number of those unable to enter school or complete primary school is still very large in many countries. These adolescents and young adults are denied the opportunity to be able to make choices and informed decisions about their lives. Further, there is mounting evidence of increasing sexual activity among unmarried adolescents, resulting in pregnancy and in many cases abortion, most of which is carried out illegally and under unsafe conditions. In many ways this situation hinders the potential development of those at young ages and for many girls results in premature death.

Lack of understanding of the needs of adolescents and youth and the differences in their needs vis-a-vis the expectations of their parents, teachers and the community -- conditioned by tradition and custom --often results in gender differentials in behavioural patterns.The consequences for both boys and girls are usually adverse. In this regard, the Programme of Action highlights the importance of the reproductive rights of individuals, and calls for action to meet the needs of adolescents in terms of reproductive and sexual health. Not only is there a need to recognize and address these issues, but it is also necessary to understand the underlying socio-cultural, economic and other determinants of the behavioural patterns of adolescents and young adults (United Nations, 1998).

3. Older persons

The demographic transition will inevitably bring with it population ageing. While in the developed countries of the region the proportion of older persons is high and increasing, in many other countries it is still low, although increasing at a moderate pace. For the ESCAP region as a whole, the rate of growth of the population aged 60-69 and 70+, particularly of the latter, is much higher than that of the younger cohorts.

It is estimated that the population aged 60 and above in the ESCAP region will double from 300 to 600 million between 1995 and 2020. The burgeoning numbers of older persons,the increasing proportion of the older population, and the current limited levels of government or private sector investment or savings directed to the support and care of older persons, make care for those people a major area of social concern.

There are several processes that suggest that living arrangements and patterns of care for older persons may undergo major changes. Declining fertility and increased mobility will act to reduce the option of older parents living with their children. Furthermore, if parents are forced to move in order to reside with one of their adult children who had previously migrated, this can disrupt local social networks that may have been built up over the course of their lives. The increased longevity of females relative to males will also tend to increase the proportion of older women living alone.

Economic development may act to encourage older persons to co-reside with their children or discourage them from doing so. Private savings and/or government social security systems may provide a source of independent support for a small, although growing, proportion of older persons. On the other hand, tight housing markets, especially in urban areas, may contribute to parents and children living together even where this is not a desired option.

Cultural values towards the care of older persons will also affect their living arrangements. Where there is strong preference for joint residence of children and their older parents, it can be expected that the pressures for separate living arising from the process mentioned above will be resisted. Finally, government policies in the housing and social security areas will play a major role in determining who the older persons will live with and how they will be cared for.

4. Sex composition

Under normal circumstances, the sex ratio, defined as the number of males per 100 females, is around 100, reflecting near equality in the number of males and females. However, the ESCAP region is unique in having a sex ratio of 104, reflecting an excess of males. Within the ESCAP region, males outnumber females, particularly in South and South-West Asia and East and North-East Asia (United Nations, 1997b).

A number of factors contribute to this situation. A strong preference for sons contributes to a lower likelihood that health care will be sought for females than for males, and this affects adversely the health and survival of young girls and women in the reproductive ages. Another phenomenon noticeable in the Republic of Korea and China, and in India, is the rather high sex ratio at birth (exceeding 110) (Kim, 1997; Das Gupta and Bhat, 1997). It should be noted that evidence is mounting about the increasing practice of prenatal sex selection in favour of males, reflecting the strong persistence of son preference.

B. Families and households1

Families and households in the Asian region are undergoing rapid transformations. Influencing these transformations have been a variety of social and economic changes that have, to varying degrees, affected all countries in the region. Social and economic processes have had an impact upon households and families mainly through demographic mechanisms. Later age at marriage, lower fertility and higher levels of migration are all related to new and expanding economic opportunities, especially for women, and social changes associated with globalization and the spread of the electronic media have helped shape new ideas towards family and gender roles. However, these social and economic changes also operate within cultural systems where family structure is a central component. Therefore, the type and amount of change occurring in family systems vary among countries within the region and can also vary within countries.

1. Household size

In table I.5, the mean household size is shown for those countries and areas in the ESCAP region that have available data. Mean household size is lowest, and declines have been greatest, in East and North-East Asian countries. At the start of the 1990s, the mean household size was four or below for all five countries in this region for which data are available. In contrast, the mean household size in South and South-West Asian countries exceeded five for all countries, and for Pakistan in the 1980s, exceeded six members per household. The mean household sizes for South-East Asia are intermediate between those of the countries of East and North-East Asia and those of South and South-West Asia.